Journal Archive

From the onset of COVID-19 pandemic, commuting in New York City and New York metro underwent substantial changes when compared with the Pre-Pandemic period. The recovery patterns of commuting impacted since the COVID-19 pandemic unfolded differently by each transportation mode such as private vehicles, commuter rails, buses, and subways.

<Figure 2> contrasts monthly commuting trends by transportation modes from January 2020 to February 2023. Road travel using private vehicles was the least impacted mode. Road traffic returned to the pre-pandemic level promptly after relaxing the first wave of travel restrictions. Traffic volumes on bridges and tunnels entering and exiting Manhattan, the region’s hub in the New York metro, continued to report over 90% of the pre-pandemic level within a year. In early 2023, the traffic volume essentially returned to the pre-pandemic level, reaching on average 99% of the pre-pandemic traffic volumes.

Figure 2. 
Monthly commuting trends (percent relative to January 2020)

Source: Open NY (2023) and PANYNJ (2023)

Public transportation ridership has experienced dramatic declines during the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures, fear of indoor space and the surge in remote work made many people avoid public transportation. Since then, the public transportation ridership has slowly climbed up, however, the recovery rates were not as fast as they were hoped. As of early 2023, the public transportation including buses, subways, and commuter rails overall returned to 60% to 70% of the pre-pandemic level. Looking further into the detailed recovery patterns in public transportation, ridership began to increase first in off-peak and weekends activities, and then buses and subways, followed by commuter rail ridership. Most recent growth in public transportation ridership shows that the peak-hour demand during weekdays has come back while Mondays and Fridays are still weak in ridership compared to mid-week.

Commmuting has been impacted and shaped by WfH, which has been the most significant change in people’s lifestyle in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. WfH including both full remote work and hybrid work increased sharply. According to the American Community Survey, about 5.7% of workers worked from home in 2019. In 2021, about 17.9% of workers worked from home, which is three times higher than the 2019 level (Burrows et al., 2023). During the same period, the New York City’s workers who worked primarily from home increased even higher than the U.S. national average from 4.7% in 2019 to 24.0% in 2021 (NYC DCP Population Division, 2022). The WfH trend continues to stay and some employers expect to see permanent change in their work from policy.

In the New York metro, based on the methodology developed by Dingel and Neiman (2020), it is estimated that the maximum 40% of workers can work from home, and those who can work from are primarily office workers. More specifically in New York City, the Partnership for New York City conducted a series of surveys since 2020 on major employers in Manhattan to estimate the work from home trend of about 1 million office workers. According to the survey conducted in October 2021, on an average weekday, 28% of Manhattan office workers returned to the office, and 54% of Manhattan office workers are still fully working from home while only 8% returned to the office for full five days. In the latest survey conducted in January 2023, 52% of Manhattan office workers returned to the office, and 10% of Manhattan office workers are still fully working remotely while 9% returned to the office for five days. Overall, the return to office rate of 52% as of January 2023 is significantly low compared to the pre-pandemic level, and the majority of employers have adopted hybrid work patterns allowing employees to work from home one to four days a week. Although it would be hard to predict whether the current hybrid remote work patterns would be permanent, it is expected to stay for a while.

The U.S. Census Bureau released the latest population estimates of the New York metro and New York City as 23.1 million and 8.3 million in 2022 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2023), respectively as shown in <Table 1>. These population numbers reflect that the population estimates for the New York metro and New York City have declined for two years in a row since the COVID-19 pandemic. The declining trend casts concerns regarding the drivers for regional growths. However, according to the New York City Department of City Planning (NYC DCP Population Division, 2023), the recent population estimates and trends indicate that the population decline during the COVID-19 pandemic could be a short-term change. New York City planners expect that the New York metro along with New York City is in the process of returning to the pre-pandemic demographic patterns.

<Table 1> presents population changes during the past decade between 2010 to 2020 in 5-year increments, and recent changes from 2020 to 2022 annually. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the overall growth patterns in the New York metro showed moderate increase with stronger growth in the region’s core areas. The population increases in New York City, the region’s core area, contributed 43% of the growth in the New York metro since 2010. Brooklyn and Queens counties in New York City have experienced robust population growths, and the fastest growing county in the New York metro was Hudson County in New Jersey state located west of Manhattan across the Hudson River.

As the COVID-19 hit, approximately 282,000 people left New York City from early 2020 to the peak of the pandemic in mid-2021, and Manhattan accounted for about one third of New York City population loss during the period while New York City’s suburban areas such as Long Island, Mid-Hudson Valley, and a few counties in Connecticut state gained population. Beginning from the COVID-19 related lockdown stage, remote work trends escalated and enabled workers to move out from the central business area and choose farther residence locations. On the other hand, population declines at the regional New York metro level were also observed during the same period, which was a result of an uptick in domestic outmigration, the lowest international immigration due to limited border crossings and closed consulates, increased deaths due to COVID-19, and decreased births (NYC DCP Population Division, 2023).

From the second half of 2021 to 2022, the declining population trends began to show signs of reversing them, and Manhattan appeared to gain population as a positive sign of returning to the pre-pandemic trend. Hybrid work patterns that allowed workers to commute one to four days a week still prevailed; however, New York City demographers assess that the population decline patterns were rather temporary phenomena experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, New York City recorded the highest level of employment with 4 million private sector jobs in 2019. Private sector employment in the New York metro as a region was approximately 9.3 million. However, as the COVID-19 hit, New York metro lost about 1 million private sector jobs over a year, and New York City lost 0.5 million private sector jobs, half of the New York metro's loss, plummeting to the worst since the financial crisis in the 1970s.

<Figure 3> presents private sector employment trends from January 2019 to March 2023, expressing in percent relative to January 2019 for New York City and adjacent submetro areas of Long Island and Mid-Hudson valley in New York state. As shown in the overall trajectory, the recovery from the job losses due to the shutdown of the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic has been modest. New York City’s recovery during the early post-pandemic period in 2020 and 2021 sluggish compared to its neighboring suburban areas of Long Island and Mid-Hudson Valley. From early 2022, New York City has showed steady growth with the stronger job gains in Brooklyn and Queens counties. As of March 2023, New York City’s private jobs returned to the pre-pandemic level with over 4 million private sector jobs.

Figure 3. 
Monthly private sector employment trends (percent relative to January 2019)

Source: New York State Department of Labor (2023)

Despite the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic-related employment declines, New York City’s economic prospect is not fully confident due to the record high level of office vacancies in Manhattan as reported in March 2023 (Colliers International, 2023b). The office market is an important driver in New York City’s economy not only as one of the major property tax revenue sources but also its secondary impact to bring commuters into the city and spend at local shops.

<Figure 4> shows the leasing activity volumes in square feet and available office inventory rate trends from 2018 to early 2023. During the pre-pandemic period in 2019, Manhattan’s office leasing has reached a high volume with close to a record-high average asking rent of $78.78 per square foot per year and almost 43 million square feet of leasing activities for a full year in 2019 (Colliers International, 2020). As the COVID-19 pandemic hit, office leasing activities dramatically declined to 6.8 million square feet during the first quarter of 2020. In 2021 and 2022, the office leasing activities have slowly recovered. As of the first quarter of 2023, Manhattan office leasing activities increased to 7.4 million square feet, however, this is approximately 75% of the pre-pandemic level, which hasn’t fully recovered the pre-pandemic office demand yet. The continuing trend of full remote and hybrid work patterns and resulting office vacancies became a post-pandemic challenge to New York City.

Figure 4. 
Leasing volume (in square feet) and available office inventory rate trends in Manhattan

Note: Leasing activities for 2018 and 2019 in this chart are quarterly averages of each year.

Source: Colliers International (2020; 2023a; 2023b)

There was a large-scale increase in remote working during the pandemic and such increase was only partly reversed when the pandemic-related restrictions were all lifted. According to Home Office Life (2023), remote working was gradually increasing since 1981 and the pre-pandemic level was 5.7% in February 2020. It rose to 43.1% in April of the same year stayed around 40-50% during the pandemic. London had higher rate at 57.2%.

According to Transport for London (2023), in December 2022, 59% of London’s working population is working from home, either partly (hybrid) or fully (remote) (see <Table 2>), The majority of WfH workers is “hybrid working”. It is found that hybrid workers go to offices mainly between Tuesday to Thursday. The surprisingly high figure of 59% work-from-home (WfH) rate in London is even more striking when contrasted to the past. While we lack pre-COVID-19 WfH data for London, we do have comprehensive data for the entire UK. As indicated in <Table 2>, the post-pandemic WfH rate for the UK stands at 44%. In contrast, the rate was a mere 4.7% in February 2020, according to The Home Office Life (2023). This suggests an approximately 40% increase across the UK as a whole. Evidently, the widespread adoption of WfH practices during the COVID-19 pandemic played a significant role in this uptick.

Demographic variations also exist in the implementation of WfH. For example, individuals aged 25-54—who are more likely to be in stable office jobs—show a higher prevalence of home-based or hybrid work arrangements compared to other age groups. Educational attainment influences the likelihood of working from home, too: 67% of those with a university degree work from home, as opposed to only 14% of those without any qualifications. Income level also correlates with WfH rates; 80% of individuals earning above £50,000 work from home, whereas the figure drops to 14% for those earning less than £10,000. Among various occupations, professionals have the highest WfH rate at 71%, followed by managers, directors, and senior officials at 64%. The lowest rate is found among process, plant, and machine operatives at 10% (The Home Office Life, 2023).

The rise of WfH has undeniably had a significant impact on commuting trips, leading to a noticeable decrease in the number of bus and tube journeys. The number of bus and tube journeys did recover as pandemic control measures were lifted, but not to their pre-pandemic levels (see <Figure 6>). While transport statistics do not specifically differentiate between commuting trips and other types of trips, it is reasonable to assume that WfH is the primary factors contributing to this decline in public transport ridership.

Figure 6. 
Public transit (bus and underground) Journeys in London

Source: Transport for London (2023)

The increasing prevalence of WfH is expected to have a significant impact on the spatial structure of London and the demand for housing in various locations. As workers prioritize proximity to their workplaces less due to the decrease in average number of commuting journeys, other factors related to the quality of houses become more influential in their decision-making process. Consequently, this shift is likely to lead to the migration of some workers to suburban areas. While direct statistical evidence of this trend is currently unavailable, several indirect measures suggest such migration.

The rental prices for new tenancies in London have experienced a significant decrease since the beginning of pandemic. GLA Demography (2021) reports, based on the HomeLet Rental Index, by February 2021, the rental prices for new tenancies in London were five percent lower compared to the previous year. This stands in stark contrast to other regions where rental prices showed comparable increases. The Rightmove Rental Trends Tracker data for the first quarter of 2021 quoted in GLA Demography (2021) indicates that asking rents in Greater London decreased by 7.8% compared to the same period in the previous year. This data further reveals a distinction between Inner and Outer London, with Inner London witnessing a major decline of 14.0%, while Outer London experienced a more modest fall of 1.1%. In contrast, national rental prices increased by 4.2% during the same period. The decrease in rental prices in Inner London may be attributed to a reduced demand for accommodation due to a decrease in the number of people seeking to rent in the city. This could be a result of fewer individuals moving to London or more people leaving the city. The substantial increases in rental prices observed in surrounding regions during the same period lend support to this possibility.

Surprisingly, the square footage of rental contracts of offices in central London is nearly returned to the pre-pandemic level according to Gerald Eve (2023), as shown in <Figure 7>.

Figure 7. 
London office quarterly take-up by submarket

Data: Gerald Eve (2023)

However, it is difficult to believe that such a trend will continue. Given the WfH is a lot more prevalent compared to pre pandemic era as discussed earlier, demand for offices in central London is likely to be less than that in the pre-pandemic era, too. Then, why the number of transactions has recovered? While it is impossible to give the definite answers, this finding is in line with ARUP (2022) listing several causes of a temporary recovery: “1) Constrained supply, with a limited number of development opportunities available; 2) Significant pre-letting of new developments (a prelet is a lease agreement made before the property is up-and-built, for example whilst it is still under construction); 3) A flight to quality, leading to particular demand for new or refurbished prime office space. This has been driven by a desire for low carbon offices and wider environmental credentials, higher growth in emerging sectors that place a value on prestigious offices (and lower growth in those that do not), and growth in desire for central locations; 4) An enticement of shorter-term leases, often in exchange for protecting price; 5) A delay in decision making from 2020 and early 2021 and so some pent-up demand.” (p. 36)

In April, 2020, Japan declared a state of emergency in seven metropolitan areas, including Tokyo, and further expanded it to the entire country later in the same month. Since then, commuting to the urban center in the Tokyo metropolitan area have decreased significantly, while migration (more specifically, residential relocation without the change of jobs) to suburban regions have increased.

Tokyo also experienced a massive increase in WfH during the pandemic. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2023), the share of WfH across Japan has been on rise since the onset of the pandemic. Moreover, Tokyo's WfH share has increased even faster than other regions (Kanto region including Tokyo is 36.3%). According to the government survey (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 2023), 51.1% of Tokyo's total workers were classified as WfH workers in February 2023 (see <Figure 8>). The peak of WfH share in the Tokyo metropolitan area was at 65% in September 2020, when a second state of emergency was declared.

Figure 8. 
Share of work from home (WfH) in Tokyo

Source: Tokyo metropolitan government (2023)

In Tokyo, as in other global cities, there are many hybrid workers, working remotely 1-4 days a week. Although the number of full remote workers gradually decreases, they still account for 20.1% of WfH workers (10.3% of total workers) in February 2023 (Tokyo metropolitan government, 2023), while the share of hybrid workers is 79.9% of WfH workers (40.8% of total workers). Tokyo has by far the highest number of employees in service industry, and many of the service industry workers are office workers.

The implementation of the top-down restrictive policy resulted in the rapid growth in the share of WfH workers in Tokyo. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government promoted remote work by sending guidelines to companies and also provided support through subsidies. It also encouraged commuting by walking to reduce public transportation congestion.

<Figure 9> shows the change in foot traffic during commuting hours (6-9 a.m.) between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods. The red areas indicate that foot traffic has increased from the level in the pre-pandemic. On the contrary, foot traffic has decreased in the blue areas from the level in the pre-pandemic. Urban centers show significant decreases, while foot traffics in suburban areas have increased. In other words, while the urban core (or CBD, Central Business District) were busy during commuting hours before the pandemic, increased WfH decreases the number of commuters in pandemic.

Figure 9. 
Change in Tokyo’s foot traffic during commuting hours (6-9 a.m.) between pre-pandemic and pandemic periods

Source: NHK (2023)

Regarding the change in average daily foot traffic in Tokyo, there was a significant decrease in foot traffic to central Tokyo from December 2019 to November 2021. On the other hand, the average daily foot traffic in the suburbs of Tokyo has increased from December of 2019 to August 2022, indicating that people are moving out of the central area and into the suburbs.

The increasing share of WfH changed the spatial structure of Tokyo and the demand for housing in various areas. The spread of WfH has eliminated the need to commute, and proximity to workplace is no longer a priority (Tokyo Association of Real Estate Appraisers Research Committee, 2022). As a result, relocation statistics show that workers are moving to the suburbs around the Tokyo metropolitan area (especially in Kanagawa Prefecture), where rents are cheaper and the size of houses is relatively large. However, only residential relocation was significant. There has been no significant change in population movement that also involves a change in occupation (Koike, 2023). On the other hand, many of them do not change their jobs, but only move their place of residence with increasing WfH options. International net migration had decreased due to the sharp decline in the influx of foreigners. However, domestic migration among metropolitan areas is not noticeable, unlike the intra-metro residential relocations in the Tokyo metropolitan area.

Based on the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 2019-2022 Basic Resident Register population movement report, Tokyo had net out-migration in 2021. The majority out-migrants from the Tokyo metropolitan area have moved to the neighboring municipalities (Saitama, Chiba, and Yokohama) (see <Tables 3 and 4>).

This is the first time since 2014 that there has been net out-migration in the 23 wards of Tokyo. Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Ibaraki, and Nagano prefectures have seen net in-migration from Tokyo and the migration patterns vary by age groups. Younger people in their 20s tend to move to Tokyo, while the outflow from Tokyo is mainly in their 20s and 30s. Additionally, those in their 30s and 40s tend to move to suburbs.

However, population inflows to central Tokyo municipalities are expected to recover, suggesting that the observed out-migration to suburban areas is limited to the pandemic period. The ranking of municipalities with the highest population growth in 2020-2021 was almost entirely suburban, likely due to lifestyle changes such as WfH. According to Recruit Holdings (2022)²⁾, because the people in their 30s and 40s are leaving Tokyo in record numbers, popular areas in central Tokyo are falling in the rankings.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about significant changes in the way people work, particularly in urban areas in Tokyo. The increased WfH has significantly impacted commuting behavior of commuters to Tokyo's 23 wards, most of whom live in suburban cities. Companies in Tokyo are now adapting to this new work style and rethinking the use of office spaces in the future. As depicted in <Figure 10>, the vacancy rate of office in the central part of Tokyo had significantly increased from the pre-pandemic trough in March 2020 until July 2021 and maintained over 6% vacancy rate since then. With the significantly drop in demand for office space (reflected by rapid rise of vacancy rate), the average rental price per 3.3 m² fell below 20,000 JPY (Japanese Yen) in February 2023. This is approximately 13% drop from the peak of 23,000 JPY recorded in July 2020.

Figure 10. 
The change in office use in the central part of Tokyo’s 23 wards

Source: Mikishoji Co., Ltd. (https://www.miki-shoji.co.jp/rent/report/branch/21)

According to the analysis by SCAG (Southern California Association of Governments) Modeling Taskforce Team (Hu, 2023), the share of WfH workers jumped to 27.3% during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to 8.8% in pre-pandemic period in the SCAG region that include six Southern California counties around Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area (LA Metro hereafter). In SCAG region, both types of WfH workers (Remote and Hybrid workers) increases from pre-pandemic period to pandemic period. The share of Remote workers more than tripled from 6.1% to 19.3%, while the share of Hybrid workers also rose almost 3 times from 2.7% to 8.0% as shown in <Figure 12> below.

Figure 12. 
Commuting pattern change by WfH modes in SCAG region (pre-, during, & post-pandemic)

Data Source: Hu (2023)

Since the first statewide stay-at-home order and public-school closure 2020 in California started on March 19, it took almost 15 months to lift all restrictions on businesses and social gatherings until June 15, 2021. Even after all the statewide restrictions were lifted, the daily time spent outside home was at least 6% lower (it ranges from 6% to 16.8% lower) than pre-pandemic average (Chetty et al., 2020).

SCAG’s analysis utilized the two survey datasets for the post-pandemic projection. Based on the SWAA (U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes) data for the overall pattern in the U.S., the combined share of WfH (both Remote and Hybrid workers) is expected to slightly increase to 28.0% in post-pandemic period. However, the analysis based on UCD (University of California, Davis) survey data, the matching share in post-pandemic period is expected to decline by 7.4% (from 27.3% in pandemic to 19.9% in post-pandemic).

The projected post-pandemic WfH patterns in Greater Los Angeles Area (6-county SCAG region) reveals an interesting pattern. The overall share of WfH in Greater Los Angeles Area is estimated to decrease mainly due to the significant drop in the share of Remote workers (those who do not commute at all). Using UCD data, SCAG’s analysis found that it would drop from 19.3% during pandemic down to 7.4% in post-pandemic period. However, the exactly opposite pattern is anticipated for the Hybrid workers, it would increase from 8.0% to 12.5% in the SCAG Region. In sum, the significant drop in Remote workers is estimated to be compensated by the jump in Hybrid workers in post-pandemic period. Consequently, when compared to pre-pandemic period, the post-pandemic share of all WfH workers in Greater Los Angeles Area is projected to rise by 11.1% (8.8% in pre-pandemic to 19.9% in post-pandemic) mainly due to the 4.6 times higher share in Hybrid workers. This also reflects the shifting trend of WfH through the COVID-19 pandemic. Both employers and employees are embracing flexible work by adopting more option to work from home. This may expand the geographic boundaries for residential relocation without the change in jobs. Also, this may impact the future demand for the office/commercial space at the core employment centers in large metros like Los Angeles.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the net outflow of population from high-cost costal metro areas accelerated (CBRE Research, April 2021). Using the U.S. Postal Service data, CBRE analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on resident migration patterns among the major metros in the U.S. The analysis found Los Angeles Metro at 4^th rank only next to San Francisco, New York City, and Seattle for the impact of COVID-19 on net out-migration. Prior to COVID-19 pandemic, the net out-migration from Los Angeles Metro was 6.2 per 1,000 residents in 2019, while the matching net out-migration during pandemic (in 2020) was 8.3 and the increase of 2.1 in a year is estimated as the impact of COVID-19. Additionally, for the net out-migration among the U.S. major metros, Los Angeles Metro was ranked at 8^th in 2019, but it was ranked at the 3^rd during the pandemic in 2023.

Annual population estimates from U.S. Census indicates that LA Metro have shown the loss of population since 2018 (see <Figure 13>). This pattern is mainly caused by the massive domestic net-outmigration population loss for 2010s. On average, LA Metro had lost 74,298 people annually through domestic net-outmigration and this has accelerated rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic to the annual net loss of 175,617 people for the 3-year period (2020-2022). The net domestic out-migration peaked in 2021 with an annual loss of 227,599 population to other part of the U.S., but this slowed in 2022 down to the net loss of 170,450.

Figure 13. 
Population change in Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA (2010-2022)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2023)

This rapidly growing net-outmigration from LA Metro was not fully driven by COVID-19 pandemic. Rather, rising cost of living and continuously increasing housing cost in Southern California are other major pushing factors. Especially, the housing market in LA Metro during pandemic were overheated and the housing affordability got significantly reduced (CAR, 2022). Many of the local residents from LA Metro moved to other surrounding metros with more affordable housing options and lower living cost like Las Vegas, NV, and Phoenix, AZ (Anderson, 2022). Linked by more enhanced inter-metro networks, these three metros in the Western U.S. have strengthened functional interactions based on specialized industrial and cultural interactions in a broader region. Increasing flows of people (e.g., migration, tourists, commuters, etc.) and trade flows (goods, services, and knowledge) in the region effectively linked the three metros to form a megapolitan cluster, Southwest Triangle (Nelson and Lang, 2011; Lang et al., 2020). The increasing trend of WfH, more specifically hybrid workers and the rising living cost (mainly driven by rapidly rising housing cost) in LA Metro, the out-migrants from LA Metro may still move to Phoenix or Las Vegas within the Southwest Triangle without changing their jobs. This pattern is expected to further intensify the inter-metro links benefiting affordable metro destinations from the spillover out of LA Metro.

Since the trough of employment in May 2020 following the statewide stay-at-home order in March, LA Metro has added approximately 1.25 million jobs until Feb 2023. However, the total nonfarm employment is still largely lagging behind the pre-pandemic peak in Feb 2020. According to BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) monthly estimates, the total number of jobs in LA Metro is 6,328,880 in February 2023, similar to that observed in September 2016. Even with the rebound and faster recovery in the second half of 2020 and 2021, the job growth in LA Metro had been sluggish during 2022. Coupled with the embracing flexible work with the increasing demand for WfH (especially, hybrid workers), the demand for office space in major employment centers of LA Metro has significantly decreased. According to the Marketbeat Reports by Cushman and Wakefield (Campion, 2023), the vacancy rate for the office space in Greater Los Angeles has been continuously on rise since the onset of COVID-19 pandemic (1^st Quarter of 2020) (see <Figure 14>). However, even with the increasing vacancy rate during pandemic (Q1:2020 to Q4:2021), the asking rent for office space (measure in $/sf, monthly) continued to rise for the same period. This can be partially explained by the pre-pandemic shortage of office supply and optimistic expectation for strong rebound in office demand with the post-pandemic economic recovery. But, the rosy expectation in the office real estate market largely overlooked the impact of the WfH pattern in post-pandemic period.

Figure 14. 
Overall vacancy & asking rent (office space in downtown Los Angeles)

Source: Na and Kenas (2022)

Starting from the first quarter of 2022, the asking rent for office space has been declining and the vacancy rate continued to grow in Greater Los Angeles. In addition, Marketbeat Reports by Cushman and Wakefield (Campion, 2023) projects that the office vacancy problems in Greater Los Angeles continues with the greater downward pressure on rental price in coming months and years. This also reflects the reduced demand in office space due to increasing flexibility with WfH options among the workers in SCAG Region and the lagging recovery in employment market.

The unexpected massive shock of COVID-19 negatively impacted the regional employment in LA Metro where the housing affordability had been a growing concern. Flexibility of employers embracing the increasing demand for WfH in post-pandemic keeps the overall commuting volume lower than the volume in pre-pandemic period. Through the interactions of the commuting volume reduction due to the rise of WfH, population redistribution, and office real estate market, the observed changes in LA Metro during the pandemic are expected to last in post-pandemic period.